Experts view - What next for house prices?
Confidence in the housing market has strengthened from its record low at the end of last year, according to research by Zoopla.co.uk. The Telegraph asked a panel of economists and industry experts if they agree.
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)
“I think that confidence has improved since the end of the year but it remains fragile and has a strong regional dimension. Confidence in London and the South East is more upbeat than in many other parts of the country, in particular parts of the Midlands and the North.
“Our headline forecast remain unchanged with prices projected to be 2pc lower in the last quarter of 2011 compared with the same period in 2010. However, there will be significant regional variation with London the only area to be slightly up.
“May still seems highly likely [for an interest rate rise] unless the activity takes a marked turn for the worse – with the ECB set to move this month and inflation continuing to push upwards it will prove difficult for the BOE to stick with its current position – however we only expect one more move this year taking the base rate to 1pc at end 2011 – there will be further tightening in 2012.”
Martin Ellis, head of housing economics at Halifax
“There are signs that both house prices and the level of sales have stabilised in the early part of 2011. This would be consistent with the evidence of improved confidence.
“Overall, we expect a modest 2pc decrease in house prices in 2011. Uncertainty over the economic outlook is likely to weigh down on housing demand this year.
“There is considerable uncertainty over the timing of the first interest rate rise. We expect it to be around the middle of the year but do not expect it to be followed quickly by further increases.”
Melanie Bien, director of independent mortgage broker Private Finance
“I find it surprising that confidence in the housing market has significantly risen since the end of last year. On the contrary, the soaring cost of living, fears over job losses and rising interest rates, seem to be making buyers and sellers sit on their hands and adopt a ‘wait and see’ attitude. The number of transactions is extremely low as a consequence.
“House prices are likely to remain flat at best this year but this national average will conceal significant regional differences. The north-south divide is set to become increasingly pronounced with prices rising in London and the south-east, particularly in the prime markets, while falling in the north, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
“Interest rates will start rising in the next few months but I believe this will now happen at the end of the summer – September, rather than May. The economy is simply too fragile and the impact would be so devastating for many home owners already struggling to make ends meet that I think a move will be delayed for as long as possible.”
Opinions are conflicting, but the general consensus seems to be that confidence in the market has strengthened since last year. Greene & Co. have experienced a positive end to the first quarter of the year and feel good about the year ahead.
Are property prices coming down?
Since the abolishment of HIP’s some interesting things have been happening in the property market. According to Rightmove “the market is starting to turn due to increased competition among sellers and fewer potential buyers”. This could be a great time to buy, as each day more properties are coming on the market and prices are also dropping. Our Managing Director, David Pollock had this to say about the current market situation.
“The London market is a different market place to the whole of England. London is in a bubble and therefore it is always a little dangerous to base house buying and selling strategies on whole of UK indexes. Having said that the abolishment of HIPS in the long run will be great for the London and UK market but without doubt there is going to be a period of adjustment. Will prices in London go up, go down or stay the same. Is now a great, average or poor time to buy or sell? The experts don’t and cant seem to agree. My advise is see property firstly as a home and secondly as an investment, its when you do it the other way round that things start to go wrong.”
We will have to wait until the emergency budget is announced to see the true effect on the market as many fear that capital gains tax could be increased but we wont find out until everything is revealed tomorrow.
Is now the time to sell or let your property?
We have found that in Crouch End house prices are going up due to the shortage of properties on the market, and that demand is outweighing supply. If you are looking in Crouch End have you found this to be the case?
Interesting information from the RICS website states that “The supply of new properties coming on to the rental market has fallen for the second consecutive quarter possibly bringing an end to the downward trend in rents that has been in place since the autumn of 2008, says the latest RICS lettings survey. This follows five quarters of negative readings, and is in marked contrast to April last year when 58 percent more Chartered surveyors were reporting falling rents, an all-time low for the survey.”
Stephen Brown, Director of our Crouch End shop has said “rental shortages are occurring, and rental prices seem to be going up. 3 properties at this shop alone went for considerable higher prices from when they were let a year ago.”
If you are looking to sell or rent out your property now could be the time to do it!
New River Village - The perfect place to buy or invest
New River Village, which is located next to the Pump House Restaurant and bar has great amenities and is in a fantastic location. 469 residential units make up the village, you will find varying unit sizes from studios all the way up to 4 bedrooms. These units have been designed with style and sophistication, and the development also offers a concierge service, gynasium and spa facility. Located less than 200 metres from Hornsey train station, its a stones throw away from the excitment of the city centre. This is definitley a place to check out if you are in the market for a new home.
Click here to go to the Greene & Co website to check out our listings for this development
The FindaProperty.com house prices and affordability index
Some interesting news from FindaProperty.com’s October affordability index - house prices are rising, but affordability for first time buyers is deteriorating…
“It’s never easy to get on the housing ladder but until the summer we had been seeing a gradual narrowing of the affordability gap. This has led to a definite pick-up in first time buyer activity as people have taken advantage of improved affordability and the stamp duty exemption on properties priced under £175,000. With prices now rising and affordability tightening again it becomes even more important that the Government retain this beyond its end date of December 31st.” Michael Flynn, Director of FindaProperty.com offers his opinion on the findings.
The lowdown on Mansion Blocks
These striking, red brick apartment blocks have a sense of granduer about them, making them an appealing place to live. Often found in well connected areas, such as Maida Vale and West Hampstead, which offer a welcome, but nearby retreat from the hustle and bustle of central London.
Primelocation.com takes a look at the pros and cons of mansion block living, a little bit of history and some advise on buying one for yourself. Read the article on Mansion blocks here.
Rightmove releases new iPhone application
Rightmove make finding your new home even easier! You can simply download their app to your iPhone and start your search from there.
What would you like to see in the blog?
We’re opening up our blog to customers. We feel it’s really important to get your feedback (good or bad), comments and opinions too. Have you got any questions on the market? Any tips you can offer? What’s your outlook on the market? Do you live locally and can offer any comments about the local area?
We are really open to suggestions and want to make this blog just as much about what you want to hear as well as what we’ve already started doing.
Email me on blog@greene.co.uk
House price trends
Just stumbled across this website about house trends. You can view the latest property prices and statistics and compare property prices by borough…it’s quite a useful tool if you’re looking to buy or sell at the moment. Have a look at the house trends website here.
Gazumping…problem solved
Gazumping happens when a seller who has already accepted one buyer’s offer then goes on to accept a higher offer, pushing the first buyer out of the picture. The seller can legally decide to accept the new offer, regardless of how close the initial buyer is to having the contracts exchanged, as until the papers are signed there is no legal obligation to either buy or sell…doesn’t sound very nice does it?
According to a post in Enormoblog.co.uk on 6th February there has been an increase in the number of people being gazumped in a buyers desperate bid to secure their dream home.
Now here comes the good bit!
Greene & Co have come up with a clever little way of dealing with this situation - the Goodwill Charter. It’s simple and it works like this…Both parties pay in an agreed amount and promise to buy/sell to each other within a predetermined period. The vendor promises not to take any other offers during that time and the buyer promises to buy the property and not gazunder. If either backs out with no good reason the other gets the money.
You can learn more about it here: The Goodwill Charter
